<![CDATA[Global Macro Method]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.nethttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8wfR!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff8765c4-d445-4453-833a-7f6729dc5dd6_426x426.pngGlobal Macro Methodhttps://www.globalmacromethod.netSubstackWed, 22 Jul 2026 18:30:43 GMT<![CDATA[The Macro Decision Engine : Part 3/10]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-310https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-310Tue, 21 Jul 2026 10:40:57 GMTUnderstanding Market Pricing

In Part 1 of the Macro Decision Engine, we started with the cycle.

Before risking capital, you need to understand the environment you are operating in. Growth, inflation and liquidity behave differently across different regimes, and the same data point can have completely different market implications depending on whether the economy is expanding, slowing, contracting, or recovering.

In Part 2, we moved from the cycle to the dominant theme.

The cycle tells you the environment. The theme tells you what the market actually cares about inside that environment. Sometimes the dominant theme is inflation. Sometimes it is growth. Sometimes it is liquidity, policy credibility, fiscal risk, geopolitics, earnings, AI, energy, China, credit stress, or positioning.

But even that is still not enough.

You can understand the cycle correctly. You can identify the dominant theme correctly. You can even have the right macro view.

And still lose money.

Because markets do not reward you for having a good story. They reward you when reality turns out differently from what was already embedded in prices.

That is why the next step in the Macro Decision Engine is understanding market pricing.

This is where macro analysis becomes market opportunity.

The goal is to write up this and eventually wrap it into a book/manual for subs

Being Right Is Not Enough

One of the most important lessons in trading is that being right is not the same thing as making money.

A trader can correctly identify that inflation is falling, but if the market has already priced a clean disinflation path, the opportunity may be limited. A trader can correctly identify that growth is slowing, but if bonds have already rallied, curves have already steepened, credit has already widened and equities have already de-rated, the trade may be late. A trader can correctly identify that central banks are likely to cut rates, but if the market has already priced those cuts aggressively, the risk may actually be in the other direction.

This is why the question is never simply, “What do I think will happen?”

The better question is, “What does the market already believe will happen?”

And then, “Where do I disagree?”

That gap between your view and market pricing is where opportunity lives.

A macro view only becomes tradable when there is a misalignment between expectations and reality. If your view is already consensus, already reflected in positioning and already embedded in prices, then being right may not be enough. The market may need you to be more right, faster than expected, or right in a way that changes the path of future expectations.

That distinction matters.

The market does not pay you for describing the world correctly.

It pays you for identifying where the world will differ from what prices imply.

Every Price Is an Implied Forecast

The easiest way to think about markets is that every price contains an embedded forecast.

A bond yield contains expectations about inflation, growth, policy rates, term premium and risk appetite. An equity index contains expectations about earnings, margins, discount rates, liquidity and investor sentiment. A credit spread contains expectations about default risk, refinancing conditions, balance sheet stress and liquidity. A currency contains expectations about relative growth, relative rates, capital flows, external balances and risk appetite.

Prices are not random numbers on a screen.

They are compressed expressions of collective expectations.

This does not mean markets are always right. They are often wrong. But they are always saying something. The job of the macro trader is to understand what they are saying before deciding whether to disagree.

If the two-year yield is rising, the market may be pricing a more restrictive central bank path. If the yield curve is steepening, the market may be pricing future easing, higher term premium, stronger nominal growth, or fiscal risk. If credit spreads are widening while equities remain strong, the market may be sending conflicting signals about growth and risk appetite. If the dollar is strengthening, the market may be pricing relative growth outperformance, relative policy divergence, funding stress, or safe-haven demand.

The price is the starting point.

The interpretation is the work.

For more research and analysis please join, all paid membership give access to www.globalmacromethod.com the best in class dashboard for macro traders

]]><![CDATA[The Week That Was and the Week That Is]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-and-the-week-thathttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-and-the-week-thatSun, 19 Jul 2026 12:37:04 GMTSofter inflation meets an oil shock & credit still refuses to price it.

US inflation cooled, but crude jumped roughly 16 per cent, semiconductor leadership broke down and credit spreads barely moved. The coming week will test whether that calm reflects genuine resilience or a market that has not yet caught up with the risks.

A roughly 16 per cent weekly rise in crude should not sit comfortably beside a two-basis-point widening in US high-yield spreads. Yet that is where markets stood by week’s end, Brent settled on Friday at US$88.10, WTI at US$82.49, while the latest available high-yield option-adjusted spread was 2.71 per cent on Thursday, only marginally wider than a week earlier.

That mismatch is the week’s real story. June US inflation delivered genuine relief, headline CPI fell 0.4 per cent over the month, core CPI was unchanged and annual core inflation eased to 2.6 per cent. Producer prices also fell. In a quieter week, that would have been enough to make the disinflation narrative dominant.

Instead, the data arrived as renewed US–Iran hostilities repriced energy, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered a bear market and Fed officials resisted treating one softer month as decisive. Realised inflation improved just as prospective inflation risk worsened.

Markets did not choose between those signals, they distributed them unevenly. Treasuries barely moved, the dollar softened modestly, equities fell and credit remained almost entirely composed. That is not a coherent macro verdict. It is a set of markets working with very different assumptions about how long the oil disruption lasts, how much pricing power companies retain and whether the AI-led correction remains contained.

The Week That Was

The inflation relief was real, but its timing matters. Energy fell 5.7 per cent in June’s CPI and 6.4 per cent in the producer-price report, doing much of the work behind the softer headline numbers. Shelter inflation slowed to 0.1 per cent for the month, which is the more durable and encouraging signal. But June’s releases describe conditions before crude surged in July. They reduce the case for immediate Fed action; they do not settle the inflation outlook for later in the year.

Demand also gave the Fed no reason to rush. Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in June, initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 and industrial production edged up 0.1 per cent. University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 54.4, while one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2 per cent. This is still a picture of resilient, late-cycle activity rather than an economy asking for policy relief.

SOX, SPX, NQ (Normalised YTD)

That distinction shaped the Fed message. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued for “modestly higher” rates, while Chair Kevin Warsh offered little fresh guidance and cautioned against drawing a policy conclusion from one month’s data. The immediate question is therefore not whether the Fed must respond to June inflation. It is whether a persistent oil shock, still-firm demand and elevated expectations keep September tightening risk alive despite the softer core print. The next FOMC meeting is on 28–29 July.

The equity sell-off also changed character. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished 20.2 per cent below its 22 June high after losing more than 18 per cent in July, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended the week lower. This was not yet a broad funding event: the VIX closed at 18.77 and investment-grade and high-yield spreads widened by only one and two basis points respectively. But it was a warning that the market’s most crowded growth narrative can weaken at the same time as the macro discount rate becomes harder to forecast.

By Sunday, the geopolitical risk had intensified again. The US said it had completed an eighth consecutive night of attacks on Iran after two American service members were killed in Jordan and another was reported missing. The coming week therefore begins with a contradiction that is becoming harder to ignore: oil and equity leadership are signalling greater fragility, while credit is still priced for very little disruption. One of those markets may have to concede.

Below the paywall, I examine why June’s inflation relief is less dovish than it first appears once the oil timing is considered; what near-static Treasury yields, a semiconductor bear market and immobile credit spreads reveal about the market’s underlying assumptions; and how the ECB decision, UK wages and CPI, Japan’s national CPI, global flash PMIs and major technology earnings fit together. I also set out the base case, the two credible ways it could break, and the specific signals in Brent, high-yield spreads, market breadth and USD/JPY that would change the view.

Enjoying what you’re reading? Subscribe to unlock the full article and support our independent research. Paid subscribers also receive exclusive access to additional tools, analysis, and resources (models, curves, charts) at www.globalmacromethod.com.

]]><![CDATA[Inflation -> Rotation -> Capitulation?]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/inflation-rotation-capitulationhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/inflation-rotation-capitulationFri, 17 Jul 2026 10:58:27 GMTThe AI Trade Has Met the Wrong Kind of Inflation

An oil shock is reviving global hike risk and forcing a leadership rotation before the growth cycle has fully broken.

The Nasdaq selloff looks like an equity story, but the more important signal is coming from rates and sector leadership. Oil has pushed global policy curves back toward hikes just as long-dated real yields test cycle highs. At the same time, defensive and financial sectors are gaining traction while technology’s relative momentum rolls over. This is not yet a recession signal. It is a test of whether the AI earnings story can survive a higher discount rate and whether the current rotation remains orderly.

Enjoying what you’re reading? Subscribe to unlock the full article and support our independent research. Paid subscribers also receive exclusive access to additional tools, analysis, and resources (models, curves, charts) at www.globalmacromethod.com.

]]><![CDATA[Cooler CPI Bought Time. It Didn’t End the Cycle.]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/cooler-cpi-bought-time-it-didnt-endhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/cooler-cpi-bought-time-it-didnt-endWed, 15 Jul 2026 10:53:54 GMTOne softer print has pushed the next hike further out. It hasn’t removed the need for one.

US CPI came in cooler and the market did what it should, front-end yields fell, the odds of an immediate Fed hike were cut, and equities got some relief. The print mattered for the immediate. The leap is a little far for a call of softer month to inflation is beaten.

The better read is in the shape of the repricing. Near-dated SOFR rallied, but the deferred curve still embeds about 45bp of tightening into next spring. Australia tells the same story in smaller size, with roughly two-thirds of a 25bp hike still in the bank-bill curve by year-end. Both central banks have more time. Neither has an all-clear.

This is the value of looking across the dashboard found on www.globalmacromethod.com rather than stopping at the headlines. A release tells you what just happened. STIRs, nominal and real yields, equity breadth and inflation-sensitive equities tell you what the market believes about the regime. Right now, those signals do not line up with a clean disinflationary glide path.

Below, I work through what the CPI print changed, why the economy remains harder to slow than the rates narrative implies, where hikes remain live, and why the same AI complex supporting growth is also making the equity market more concentrated than the headline indices suggest.

Enjoying what you’re reading? Subscribe to unlock the full article and support our independent research. Paid subscribers also receive exclusive access to additional tools, analysis, and resources at www.globalmacromethod.com.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Australian Rates: The Market Is Too Relaxed About Sticky Inflation]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/australian-rates-the-market-is-toohttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/australian-rates-the-market-is-tooMon, 13 Jul 2026 11:46:58 GMTThe front end is pricing a relatively benign path back to target. That assumption may be vulnerable to the next inflation print and to an RBA that cannot afford to declare victory too early.

Australian rates markets increasingly reflect the view that the current inflation overshoot will fade without materially more policy restraint. That looks complacent.

The composition of inflation remains the key issue. Services and domestically generated price pressures are proving more persistent than goods inflation, while businesses continue to pass higher costs through to consumers. Even if headline inflation moderates, the RBA is likely to focus on whether underlying inflation is returning sustainably to the 2–3% target band.

This creates an attractive opportunity in the Australian short-rate curve. The selected contract offers a defined-risk way to position for a more hawkish repricing around upcoming CPI data and the next RBA meeting.

Subscribers receive the exact contract, entry level, stop, sizing and risk framework below.

Join up to gain access to a state of the art website www.globalmacromethod.com with models, curves, systems and wider analysis

]]><![CDATA[Website/Model Update: Breadth and Trend/Reversion Pages]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/websitemodel-update-breadth-and-trendreversionhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/websitemodel-update-breadth-and-trendreversionMon, 13 Jul 2026 10:40:27 GMTWe’ve rolled out a major upgrade to the Global Macro Method platform, giving paid subscribers a clearer, faster and more actionable view of market trends and internal strength.

The updated Trend / Reversion page brings the systematic models (FX, Equities, Rates and Commodities) together in one streamlined dashboard. Subscribers can view positioning across multiple model speeds, recent signal flips, long and short alignment, trend duration and the strongest active moves at a glance. The platform also highlights which models have changed today, helping users focus immediately on the signals that require attention.

The new visual history makes it much easier to understand not only what each model is signalling, but how that signal has developed over time.

This matters because a single indicator rarely tells the whole story. By comparing momentum, fast and slow models side by side, users can quickly identify where trends are strongly confirmed, where signals remain mixed and where a potential regime change may be developing.

We’ve also launched a fully upgraded Sector Breadth page. It tracks the percentage of stocks trading above key moving averages, both across the wider market and within individual sectors. The dashboard includes breadth history, sector rankings, momentum, distribution, 52-week ranges and a colour-coded sector map.

Breadth is a powerful way to look beneath the headline index. An index can appear strong while participation is narrowing under the surface. These tools help subscribers distinguish between broad, healthy market moves and rallies being driven by only a small number of stocks.

Together, the new pages make it easier to assess trend strength, market participation and cross-market confirmation without having to build, update or maintain the underlying models yourself.

The updates are now live and available to all paid subscribers at www.globalmacromethod.com.

More clarity. Better context. Faster decision-making.

]]><![CDATA[Alpha Extraction Hiding in Rotation]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/alpha-extraction-hiding-in-rotationhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/alpha-extraction-hiding-in-rotationSun, 12 Jul 2026 09:41:11 GMTThe US market is not pricing an imminent recession… no shit right!

It is pricing a more difficult outcome profile, an economy resilient enough to sustain earnings and credit, but also strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve restrictive. The Treasury curve reflects both risks. The front end is carrying the possibility of further tightening, while the long end continues to demand compensation for a higher nominal neutral rate, duration supply (both via corps and gov) and persistent term premium.

That rates regime try to help explain the apparently unusual equity leadership underneath the index. Investors are rotating from cash-rich AI and platform companies with financials, healthcare and utilities, while remaining cautious on housing, real estate and the more financing-sensitive parts of discretionary demand. CPI will determine whether that barbell broadens into a healthier rally or becomes even more concentrated.

Below the article covers: How to distinguish peak hawkishness from another leg higher in yields, why a soft headline CPI may not be enough, and the cross-asset signals that would confirm the next regime.

Join the substack and gain access to the dashboards that have been utilised by both sell and buy side traders (www.globalmacromethod.com)

Subscribe now

]]><![CDATA[Mr Market: "Something is Happening!"]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/mr-market-something-is-happeninghttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/mr-market-something-is-happeningWed, 08 Jul 2026 11:07:08 GMTThe market is sending a more nuanced message than the index level alone suggests. Under the surface, leadership, rates, real yields and options pricing are beginning to tell a more selective story. The full note looks at whether the current move is simply a pause, a rotation, or the early stage of a broader risk reset.

Subscribe now

Join for more top shelf research and access to the below research website

]]><![CDATA[The Week That Was, The Week That Is]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-the-week-that-is-b18https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-the-week-that-is-b18Sun, 05 Jul 2026 06:43:52 GMTMarkets started last week thinking central banks were still firmly in charge. By the end of it, the labour market had grabbed that microphone.

STIR Curves from the GMM (www.globalmacromethod.com) website - Available for all paid subscribers.

The big shift came from the US, where June payrolls rose just 57,000, unemployment held at 4.2%, participation slipped, and previous months were revised lower. That was enough to cool some of the higher for longer, maybe even higher again narrative, even though other parts of the US economy still looked pretty resilient. ISM manufacturing remained in expansion, job openings were steady, real spending was positive, equities rallied, the dollar softened, and gold caught a bid.

Below I explain why this week is less about blockbuster data and more about reading the central-bank tea leaves, from the FOMC minutes to the ECB accounts, the Bank of England’s stability update, and Japan’s busy data run.

The website continues to improve, with major updates rolling out weekly, this week the portfolio page was completed. Coming soon will be updates to Curves and Bonds.

]]><![CDATA[Peak Hawkishness May Be Behind Us]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/peak-hawkishness-may-be-behind-ushttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/peak-hawkishness-may-be-behind-usFri, 03 Jul 2026 00:01:36 GMTThe latest NFP print was not a growth panic signal, but it did put a little more light on labour-market fragility. That matters for the front end, bonds and more broadly risk.

The www.globalmacromethod.com website has been upgraded with equity internal dashboard added, and this weekend a refreshed STIR and Bonds dashboard. Also a revamp of the portfolio tracker is will underway and will soon have subscribe-able alerts.

]]><![CDATA[Fade the Inflation Scare, Not the Market]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/fade-the-inflation-scare-not-thehttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/fade-the-inflation-scare-not-theTue, 30 Jun 2026 14:03:00 GMTThe market is pricing an inflation problem that the cross-market tape is no longer confirming.

That is the contradiction. The Fed path now discounts roughly 39.7 basis points of tightening over the next nine months, yet the assets that should lead in a durable inflation regime are breaking down. Commodities are losing relative strength. Energy leadership has faded. Miners have rolled over. TIPS/Inflation Swaps are not outperforming nominals. At the same time, equity breadth is improving beneath the surface.

This is not the footprint of a market moving into a new inflation regime. It looks more like the late stage of an inflation scare.

US STIR Pricing

US Inflation Swaps

The front end is priced as though inflation persistence is becoming a policy problem. The inflation curve is not saying the same thing. One-year inflation swaps are near 2.13%, while 2yr, 5yr and 10yr inflation swaps are clustered around 2.33%. That is not an inflation breakout. That is an anchored inflation curve sitting beneath a hawkish front-end repricing.

The equity internals are even clearer. Over the past 21 trading days, DBC/SPY and PDBC/SPY are both down about 9%, XME/SPY is down more than 14%, XLE/SPY is down about 4%, and TIP/IEF is down nearly 2%. The market is not accumulating inflation hedges. It is liquidating them.

Broad commodities vs the market.

Energy equities vs the market

Metals and mining vs the market

Inflation-linked Treasuries vs nominal Treasuries.

That matters because risk is not behaving like a recession trade either. Breadth has improved underneath the index. RSP/SPY is up about 4% over 21 days, IWM/SPY is up about 4%, MDY/SPY is up nearly 5%, and QQQE/QQQ is up almost 4%. At the same time, MAGS/SPY is down almost 9% and MAGS/RSP is down more than 12%.

That is a rotation away from narrow mega-cap leadership, not a collapse in risk appetite.

This is the cleanest breadth gauge in the U.S. equity market.

Small caps vs large caps.

Mid-caps vs large caps.

Mega-cap leadership vs the broad S&P.

Mega-cap leadership vs the equal-weighted index.

The clean read is this… The market has overpaid for inflation persistence while internals are rotating toward disinflationary breadth. That does not mean chase every beta expression. It means the better setup is front-end rates relief, softer inflation hedges, and broader equity participation, with some caution around crowded AI and semiconductor leadership.

EOFY + 4th July Special: 15% Off Annual Plans

To celebrate EOFY and the 4th of July, we’re offering 15% off annual plans for Global Macro Method until the end of the week.

Thank you for your continued support and belief in what we’re building. Global Macro Method has already come a long way, but we truly believe the best is yet to come.

Use the below link to secure a better rate. https://globalmacromethod.substack.com/1e093854

]]><![CDATA[Trade: Bund]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/trade-bundhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/trade-bundMon, 29 Jun 2026 13:23:10 GMTShort Bund Futures: Sell the Relief Rally

]]><![CDATA[SNER: Oracle]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/sner-oraclehttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/sner-oracleMon, 29 Jun 2026 12:03:27 GMTThe Single Name Equity Reports (SNER) are aiming to provide high quality research for existing positions and future positions with a macro overlay, in due time models and data analytics will be added to the www.globalmacromethod.com website for paid subs in a dedicated ‘SNER’ section.

Oracle has become one of the more interesting stocks in the market because the debate is no longer about whether the company is relevant. It clearly is. The real question is whether the equity now offers enough compensation for the balance-sheet risk that comes with becoming an AI infrastructure platform.

I come into this with a bias. I already own Oracle (long at 144.25 on 3rd of March 2026) and my instinct is to want to be long good enterprise software businesses with durable customer relationships. But that bias is exactly why I need to be disciplined here, given the recent rise and fall. Oracle is not simply a database-and-maintenance compounder anymore. It is now a leveraged AI capacity build-out with a software franchise attached to it. That can work very well, but it deserves a different underwriting framework.

GMM is leveling up with Macro and now Single Name Equities, The team is now 3 people and growing. We are just getting started!

]]><![CDATA[The Week That Was, The Week That Is]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-the-week-that-ishttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-week-that-was-the-week-that-isSun, 28 Jun 2026 09:45:10 GMTThe Week That Was: Expensive Resilience

The US remains the only macro story that matters, and this week sharpened the regime. The economy is not rolling over, inflation is not defeated, and the Fed is no longer offering the market a free put. That combination is awkward for consensus portfolios built around “slower growth, easier money, higher multiples.” The better description i like is expensive resilience, activity is holding, but the policy price of that activity is going up.

Below I breakdown the week that was, and talk to everything you need to know for the week coming. The week coming is heavy on labor data! So its time to lock in!

Paid subscribers gain access to www.globalmacromethod.com where I share key G6 fixed income curves along with models for FX and Economic Regimes. More model are being released this week.

]]><![CDATA[US Rates Signal Something Important]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/us-rates-signal-something-importanthttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/us-rates-signal-something-importantFri, 26 Jun 2026 13:25:54 GMTThe U.S. Rates Market Got an Inflation Refund, Not a Fed Pivot

The danger in U.S. rates is not that Treasuries are rallying. The danger is misreading why they are rallying.

Oil is lower, inflation compensation has cooled, and the immediate Hormuz premium has leaked out of front-end pricing. That is real macro relief. It removes one of the nastier risks for the Fed, a fresh energy shock that lifts headline inflation, hardens expectations, and forces policymakers to defend credibility just as growth sensitivity is rising.

But this is not a Fed pivot. It is an inflation refund.

The SOFR curve is no longer being asked to carry the same oil-shock insurance it carried at the peak of the scare. The market has reduced the probability of additional tightening, but it has not priced a proper policy release.

Front-end inflation fear is being refunded, not replaced by a clean easing cycle.

The Fed reaction function is why the move should be treated carefully. When oil rises, the Fed responds quickly because credibility is asymmetric. When oil falls, it does not immediately reverse the hawkish impulse. It waits for confirmation.

That leaves the front end in a policy-versus-data gap. The market can remove obsolete hike insurance before the Fed gives permission, but it cannot price a durable easing cycle unless the inflation sequence confirms that the shock has faded beyond energy, and where are not quiet there yet!

That is why the inflation-swap chart matters more than the nominal-yield chart. The front end of U.S. inflation compensation has cooled because oil is no longer behaving like a persistent supply threat. That helps Treasuries, supports receivers, and lowers the near-term policy tail.

The inflation scare has cooled fastest where oil matters most, the short end.

The unresolved question is whether this compression in inflation compensation can pull real rates lower. That decides whether the trade is a tactical front-end receiver or the start of a broader duration regime.

Join to gain access www.globalmacromethod.com and all research and trades. New models being deployed this weekend and next week.

]]><![CDATA[The Macro Decision Engine: Real World Use of Parts 1 and 2]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-real-worldhttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-real-worldTue, 23 Jun 2026 13:22:41 GMTApplying Parts 1 and 2 to the current market:

Slowing growth, sticky inflation, tight liquidity, and a possible transition from geopolitical risk toward AI concentration and policy constraint.

The purpose of the following article is to demonstrate the application of the Part 1 and Part 2 of the extensive series ‘Marcro Decision Engine’

Frameworks only matter if they remain useful when the market becomes noisy.

In Part 1 of the Macro Decision Engine, I wrote:

“Do not start with the trade. Start with the environment.”

The objective of cycle analysis is not to predict every data release or market move. It is to establish the constraint set in which those moves are occurring. Part 1 therefore begins with three pillars: growth, inflation and liquidity. Their interaction tells us which assets are supported, which are vulnerable and where the burden of proof should be highest.

Part 2 then asks a different question:

“The cycle tells you the environment. The theme tells you what the market is paying attention to inside that environment.”

That distinction is particularly useful today, because the market’s reaction to apparently positive news is telling us that the dominant theme may be changing.

]]><![CDATA[The Macro Decision Engine : Part 2/10]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-210https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-210Mon, 22 Jun 2026 11:16:36 GMTFinding the Dominant Theme

In Part 1 of the Macro Decision Engine, we started with the foundation of every macro decision: the cycle.

Before forming a view on rates, equities, currencies, commodities, or credit, you need to understand the environment you are operating in. Growth, inflation and liquidity behave differently across different regimes, and the same piece of information can have very different market implications depending on the cycle.

That is the starting point.

But the cycle is not enough.

Once you understand the environment, the next question is more tactical and, in many ways, more important for market timing.

What does the market actually care about right now?

This is where many traders go wrong. They assume that all information matters equally. They treat every data release, every headline, every central bank speech and every market move as if it deserves the same weight. But markets do not work that way.

Markets are selective.

At any point in time, investors collectively decide what matters most. Sometimes the dominant theme is inflation. Sometimes it is growth. Sometimes it is liquidity. Sometimes it is fiscal policy, geopolitics, AI, China, energy, credit stress, bank funding, central bank credibility, or something else entirely.

The dominant theme is the lens through which the market interprets new information.

If inflation is the dominant theme, then every data point is judged by what it means for inflation persistence and central bank policy. If growth is the dominant theme, then the same data point is judged by what it means for earnings, employment, recession risk and policy support. If liquidity is the dominant theme, then investors care less about the economic data itself and more about whether financial conditions are tightening or easing.

This is why identifying the dominant theme matters.

The cycle tells you the environment.

The theme tells you what the market is paying attention to inside that environment.

And if you do not know what the market is paying attention to, you will constantly misread the reaction function.

To read more of module 2 please subscribe for access to all GMM has to offer, frameworks, trade ideas, live portfolio tracking, curves and models via www.globalmacromethod.com

The high-level map of the ‘MDE’ Macro Decision Engine

]]><![CDATA[FOMC Outcome]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/fomc-outcomehttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/fomc-outcomeThu, 18 Jun 2026 10:13:17 GMTIn the wake of the FOMC it was clear it was less about the decision itself and more about the policy architecture Warsh is trying to build.

The Fed held rates steady, but the market reaction tells you the meeting was far from neutral. SOFR pricing now implies the policy path moves from roughly 3.63% today toward 4.09% by early 2027, with around 46bp of cumulative tightening priced in. That is a meaningful shift. The market is no longer debating when cuts return. It is debating whether the Fed may need to do more.

You have to give Warsh credit here.

To read more please subscribe for access to all GMM has to offer, frameworks, trade ideas, live portfolio tracking, curves and models via www.globalmacromethod.com

]]><![CDATA[The Macro Decision Engine : Part 1/10]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-110https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/the-macro-decision-engine-part-110Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:51:26 GMTUnderstanding the Cycle Before You Risk Capital

Markets do not suffer from a shortage of information. Every day brings another inflation print, labour market release, central bank speech, earnings update, geopolitical headline, liquidity injection, bond auction, positioning report, or price move that demands interpretation. There is always more data, more commentary, more noise and more urgency.

The real challenge is not access to information. The real challenge is hierarchy. What matters? What does not? What is already priced? What changes the distribution of outcomes? What creates an opportunity worth risking capital on?

Most market participants approach this problem backwards. They begin with price action, search for a narrative that explains it, and then try to retrofit a trade around that narrative. The chart moves first, the story comes second, and the trade is often built last, usually under pressure.

A more robust macro process works in the opposite direction. You begin by identifying the environment, then isolate the dominant themes, assess what the market has already priced, build an evidence base, test that evidence across asset classes, and only then decide whether there is a trade worth taking.

That is the purpose of this series.

Over the coming weeks (10 parts), we are going to build what I call the Macro Decision Engine a repeatable framework for converting information into alpha. This is not designed to be a forecasting machine. Markets are too complex, reflexive and adaptive for that. The objective is not to predict every payrolls print, every central bank decision, or every move in yields.

The objective is to build a structured process for making better decisions under uncertainty. Because in macro, the edge rarely comes from knowing one thing that nobody else knows. More often, it comes from organising widely available information better than the market is currently organising it.

What This Series Will Cover

By the end of this series, the goal is to have a complete framework for moving from macro information to market expression. Each module will build on the previous one, starting with the broad environment and gradually moving toward trade selection, risk construction and process improvement.

Module 1 begins with the foundation of every macro decision: the economic cycle. Before forming a view on rates, equities, currencies, commodities, or credit, you need to understand the environment you are operating in. Growth, inflation and liquidity behave differently across different regimes, and the same data point can have very different market implications depending on the cycle. This module will focus on identifying whether the economy is expanding, slowing, contracting, or recovering, and why that matters for asset allocation and trade selection.
Module 2 will focus on finding the dominant theme. Markets are not driven by all information equally. At any point in time, investors collectively decide what matters most. Sometimes it is inflation. Sometimes it is growth. Sometimes it is liquidity. Sometimes it is fiscal policy, geopolitics, AI, China, energy, credit stress, or central bank credibility. This module will look at how to separate durable market drivers from short-term noise.
Module 3 will move into market pricing. Being right is not enough. You also need to know what is already priced. If the market already expects rate cuts, weaker growth, lower inflation, or stronger earnings, then the opportunity depends on whether reality deviates from those expectations. This module will look at how to reverse-engineer market expectations from rates, curves, credit spreads, equities, currencies and volatility.
Module 4 will build the information mosaic. One indicator rarely gives you an edge. Macro conviction comes from assembling multiple pieces of evidence into a coherent mosaic. This module will formalise the process of informational edge stacking: combining economic data, market pricing, positioning, policy signals, corporate behaviour and cross-asset moves into a weighted view of the world.
Module 5 will focus on cross-asset confirmation. Macro views should not live in isolation. If a theme is real, it should usually leave footprints across more than one asset class. A growth scare should appear in rates, credit, equities, commodities and FX. An inflation scare should affect the front end, breakevens, commodities and the currency complex. A liquidity impulse should show up in risk appetite, volatility and funding markets. This module will show how to use cross-asset confirmation to test whether the market is validating or rejecting your thesis.
Module 6 will examine the market error. Alpha comes from the gap between expectations and reality. The best macro opportunities often emerge when the market is focused on the wrong variable, extrapolating the wrong trend, underestimating a policy shift, or mispricing the distribution of outcomes. This module will focus on identifying the specific belief embedded in prices that you think is wrong.
Module 7 will focus on selecting the best trade expression. A good macro thesis is not the same thing as a good trade. The same view can often be expressed through rates, FX, commodities, equities, credit, options, curves, spreads, or relative-value structures. This module will examine how to choose the cleanest and most attractive expression for a macro view, based on liquidity, convexity, carry, correlation, drawdown risk and payoff asymmetry.
Module 8 will move into risk construction. The quality of a trade is determined before the entry. Position sizing, stop placement, scenario analysis, time horizon and portfolio interaction all matter as much as the thesis itself. This module will cover how to construct risk deliberately rather than emotionally.
Module 9 will focus on trade management. Most traders spend too much time on entry and not enough time on management. After a position is live, the decision-making burden increases. You need to know when to add, reduce, hold, exit, or invalidate the thesis. This module will cover trade lifecycle management: scaling, profit-taking, reassessing evidence, adapting to new information and distinguishing volatility from thesis deterioration.
Module 10 will cover post-mortems and process improvement. The best traders compound process, not just capital. Every trade should improve the system, whether it makes money or loses money. This module will look at how to review decisions, separate process from outcome, diagnose errors, identify behavioural biases and refine the decision engine over time.

The final module will bring everything together. By the end of the series, the objective is to have a complete framework that allows you to move through the same sequence every time: where are we in the cycle, what is the dominant theme, what is already priced, what evidence supports the view, what contradicts it, is there cross-asset confirmation, where is the market wrong, what is the best expression, how should risk be constructed, and how will I know if I am wrong?

That is the Macro Decision Engine. It is not a promise of certainty. It is a process for operating intelligently in uncertainty. And that is where macro investing begins.

Sign up for the coming growth phase of Global Macro Method, and access to my website www.globalmacromethod.com

]]><![CDATA[Opportunity: The Next Trade]]>https://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/opportunity-the-next-tradehttps://www.globalmacromethod.net/p/opportunity-the-next-tradeMon, 15 Jun 2026 12:30:41 GMTThe market spent last week pricing the risk that an energy shock would force central banks back into inflation-defense mode. That was the correct question while the Strait of Hormuz was impaired, oil was carrying a geopolitical premium, and investors were debating whether a supply shock could become a second-round inflation problem. The US-Iran deal changes the setup. Oil fell sharply after reports that the agreement would reopen Hormuz, but the market reaction is not just about crude. It is about whether the inflation scare has faded quickly enough to revive the equity chase.

That does not mean the all-clear has arrived. A diplomatic deal is not the same as physical normalization. Ships still have to move, insurance has to clear, backlogs have to unwind, and the agreement still has to survive implementation. The market can remove risk premium faster than the real economy can normalize. That gap matters because it creates the next tradeable opportunity, the shock is fading, but positioning, policy language, and equity risk appetite may not reset at the same speed.

The old line was inflation now, growth later. Energy and shipping stress hit headline inflation first, then central-bank reaction functions, and only later margins, consumption, hiring, and earnings. The new line is de-escalation now, chase later. If oil continues to fall and expectations remain contained, the market will begin to treat the shock as a temporary tax rather than the start of a durable stagflation regime. That is a very different setup for equities.

The mistake would be to call this simply “risk-on.” That is too blunt. The cleaner question is whether lower energy risk gives investors permission to reprice upside again. The market had already shown signs of broader participation when oil fell, the deal now gives that broadening a cleaner macro catalyst. But the move still needs confirmation. Equity upside becomes more interesting if lower oil is joined by softer inflation expectations, less hawkish central-bank pressure, and breadth that extends beyond a one-day relief rally.

That is where the opportunity sits. Not in chasing every cyclical. Not in declaring the stagflation scare dead. Not in pretending implementation risk has disappeared. The cleaner expression is convexity… more on that below…

Coming soon to GMM Substack and www.globalmacromethod.com

]]>