A Cheerful Index, A Cautious Market

I’m excited to introduce Micky, who has recently started working with me on the build-out of the next phase of the platform. Michael’s background is in defence, with a focus on cryptology and data analytics, an unusual blend that maps exceptionally well to the kind of market work we do: pattern recognition, signal extraction, and building robust tooling that holds up when conditions get noisy. He’s also very much self-made, having cut his teeth in markets through years of disciplined crypto “HODL’ing” and the inevitable lessons that come with living through full-cycle volatility.

Over the coming week(s), Michael will be spinning up the new website, www.globalmacromethod.com. The goal is simple: make the workflow tangible and repeatable. The site will host a daily review sheet (“tear sheets”), a live trade tracker, STIR pricing and curve tools, and a specialised macro dashboard built to support real decision-making, and provide more visability around what’s priced, what’s changed, and what we do with it.

For now, please refer to the January tracker below. The format is intentionally lightweight while the plumbing goes in, but from here, trade ideas will be much more explicit: clearer expression, clearer sizing and risk parameters, and tighter follow-through from thesis to execution to review.

Today is a good reminder that an index-level green day (at the time of writting this) does not automatically equal “risk-on.” ES is up roughly +0.5% on the day (11ish EST), but the internal mosaic reads more like controlled de-risking than a clean, broad-based bid. When the benchmark is up while the participation proxies are soft, I treat it as a yellow light: you can still make progress on the tape, but you’re doing it with narrower leadership and a more defensive preference set underneath.