A Walk Through the Fog

It’s been a strange sort of clarity in markets lately the kind that only a macro trader can appreciate. Not the clarity of answers, but the clarity of questions narrowing. The Fed doesn’t want to cut, but doesn’t want to admit it. The ECB pretends it’s data-dependent while winking hawkishly at Frankfurt. And the Treasury? It’s flirting with policy gymnastics, quietly shifting the plumbing behind the curtain, hoping no one yells "QE!" too soon.

Let’s walk through what just happened across the three big theatres Washington, Frankfurt, Tokyo and why the market isn’t quite sure whether to flatten, steepen, or simply wait.