Annoyingly Fine

A US Economy focus

If you zoom out, the market is basically whispering:

“the US economy is still annoyingly fine”

While rates are politely removing the two cuts in 2026 sticker from the window. Cyclicals, value, and breadth are all sending the kind of message that makes a clean slowdown narrative feel like wishful thinking.

Behind the paywall, I’ll lay out the actual decision tree I’m using, what has to break first for this to flip from strong-with-sticky-inflation, into a real risk-off regime, and what the rate curve is quietly admitting about that path.

I’ll also show the single tell I’m watching that will stop me getting gaslit by one-day moves and overly confident talking heads with a microphone.