Bias/Skew

US stocks bounced back today, with futures up over 1%, after the courts tossed out Trump's latest round of global tariffs. In classic Trump style, just when markets started pricing in chaos, we got another twist—this time from a three-judge panel declaring his tariffs illegal. Another bold threat, another quick retreat.

But let's not get carried away. Beneath today's feel-good bounce, the economy is still flashing some yellow lights. GDP slipped 0.2% last quarter—the first drop we've seen in years—as consumer spending slowed to a crawl, growing at just 1.2%. Businesses scrambled to front-load imports ahead of the tariffs, seriously dragging down net exports and overall growth.

Corporate America felt the sting, too, with profits down nearly 3%, the sharpest dip since 2020. Even giants like Walmart have flagged they're likely to pass on tariff-related price hikes, despite Trump's public pushback.

Sure, markets are relieved today—but we've been down this road before. Trump's tariff drama might be becoming background noise, but economic realities are still very much in play. The real test comes when the initial relief wears off and investors refocus on fundamentals. Until then, enjoy the reprieve—but don't get too comfortable.

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