Big Trade Idea: SONIA Curve

Jul 06, 2025

∙ Paid

The Cuts Are Coming: Why the SONIA Curve Is Still Too Shallow

As we move through mid-2025, the UK economy stands on uncertain footing. Growth has been uneven, inflation is cooling but sticky in parts, and the labour market is loosening beneath the surface. The Bank of England (BoE), having completed a full 100bps of rate cuts since its 2024 peak, remains cautiously dovish, leaning into a “gradual and careful” easing cycle. But in the rates market, the curve hasn’t yet caught up.

The below article outlines the macro element to support a high conviction trade in the SONIA curve. Please subscribe to see more. Also note the discord room is now live where we can discuss the finer points of this trade in a more collaborative forum.

Global Macro Method - Discord Room

Note the premium+ (annual premium subscription) is great value and greater access to analysis and discussion with me. Also happy to help review processes and trades in real time too.

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Global Macro Method.

Or purchase a paid subscription.