Bonds Buckle, Equities Climb, and a New Capital Order Emerges
Morning all
We’re heading into the second half of 2025 with a market narrative full of contradictions. Long-end bonds are breaking, equities are melting higher, and the dollar is quietly losing its halo. It’s the kind of macro environment where the headlines aren’t loud but the underlying shifts are massive.
In this post, I lay out four live trade themes I’m running each one rooted in a structural thesis, not just a headline fade:
Why I’m short Buxl and U.S. 30s into the fiscal wall no one wants to talk about
How capital is slipping away from the USD, and what that means for FX positioning
Why being long RTY and ES here isn’t madness it’s Goldilocks with teeth
And how I’m looking to sell crude strength tactically, as geopolitical fear premiums lose their punch
Each theme ties back to a core idea: divergence is opportunity. When bonds scream caution, but equities price in resilience you don’t have to choose a side. You trade the fracture lines.
I’ve got skin in the game on every trade I walk through. This isn’t theory. It’s what I’m doing now with real capital, real conviction, and tight risk.
📉 Fiscal blowouts
💵 Dedollarisation flows
📈 Equity euphoria that actually makes sense
🛢️ Tactical energy fades
Subscribers get the full breakdown, positioning, macro logic, trade construction, and where I think the next mispricings are. Also we are 7-10 days away from launching the discord server…. where the analysis will be insane!
