Cuts Don’t Die

Cuts Don’t Die: They Just Get Delayed Into the “Warsh Chair” Window

Today’s jobs print did two things at once, it reassured the market that the US economy is not rolling over, and it reminded everyone why the Fed doesn’t need to hurry. Payrolls came in at +130k vs +65k expected, unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, and wages were firm (+0.4% m/m). That’s not a “re-acceleration” story, but it is a stabilization story, the exact sort of outcome that lets the Fed sit on its hands, keep financial conditions from getting too loose, and wait for inflation to prove it’s actually breaking lower.