FOMC: Doves vs Hawks - Expected Value (EV) of STIR Curve.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar: Short End Implies Steep Easing Path
The probability of an imminent FOMC rate cut on December 10th has climbed dramatically recently, with money markets now pricing in a substantial chance of easing. The short end of the interest rate market, as implied by the latest futures data, indicates that traders are betting on a series of aggressive cuts over the next year.
The Market Bets on Dec 10th Cut
As of the close on November 25, 2025, the market’s implied rate for the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting stands at 3.684%.
This represents a sharp implied cut of 19.6 basis points (bps) from the current meeting’s implied rate of 3.880.
This move implies a 78.4% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting.
This aggressive pricing reflects the market’s conviction following recent dovish commentary from key Fed policymakers.
A Substantial Easing Cycle Priced In
The image data reveals that traders anticipate a rapid and sustained easing cycle through 2026 and into 2027.
