FOMC Outcome

In the wake of the FOMC it was clear it was less about the decision itself and more about the policy architecture Warsh is trying to build.

The Fed held rates steady, but the market reaction tells you the meeting was far from neutral. SOFR pricing now implies the policy path moves from roughly 3.63% today toward 4.09% by early 2027, with around 46bp of cumulative tightening priced in. That is a meaningful shift. The market is no longer debating when cuts return. It is debating whether the Fed may need to do more.

You have to give Warsh credit here.

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