Global STIR & Curve Update

Narrow Equilibrium, Rising Reals, and Fiscal Turns

Markets continue to quietly re-price the global easing cycle not through panic or data shocks, but via a gradual lift in real yields. Across the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the message is similar: policy normalization is intact, but the expression varies. The Fed’s story is one of slower and smaller cuts, the ECB’s is one of hesitation and fragmentation, and Japan’s is one of fiscal hand-offs. Below is a region-by-region breakdown of how the curves are evolving, and where I see the better expressions.