Jobs Just Flinched. The Fed Might Be Next.

It was supposed to be a quiet summer Friday, but the labor market had other ideas. Beneath the surface of a still-low unemployment rate, the cracks are starting to widen and the market's finally paying attention.

Payroll revisions were brutal.

Prime-age employment dropped.

Goods-producing jobs are quietly bleeding out.

And yet, most of the headlines are still focused on AI and tariffs.

Let me walk you through what I think just happened and where we might be headed next….

Subscribe for full access to my take on the recession signals, Fed dynamics, market divergences, and what might finally break the stalemate in US macro.