STIR and BOND Curve Shape and Signals
The AI narrative is loud. It’s moving single names, it’s reshuffling leadership, and it’s giving everyone a convenient storyline for why the tape feels so jumpy.
But if you’re trying to understand what regime we’re in, not just what theme is trending, the cleaner signal is coming from rates and from the market’s internal plumbing.
Rates are telling you “growth risk is rising.”
Equity internals are starting to behave like they agree.
This is less about “AI winners vs losers” and more about a broader repricing of the cycle.
1) Rates: cuts priced out near-term, easing pushed into the reds
The most important development in rates is the shape of the policy path.
Cuts have been priced out of the short end, call it the next nine months. That’s the market pulling back from the idea of imminent Fed insurance. It’s a “not yet” message inflation persistence, reaction-function caution, or simply a higher bar before the Fed can credibly ease.
