Struggle Street: Flattening + Breadth Repair
Last week wasn’t a noisy week in rates, it was a proper repricing event in the SOFR (Fed-implied) curve. You can see it clearly in the strip shift. The market didn’t just shuffle a few basis points around the edges, it moved the whole expected policy path in a way that forces you to update your baseline.
And the timing matters. This repricing is landing right as the equity complex is dealing with a messy leadership transition that has been talked about a great length in every pocket of interwebs. The AI/tech shakeout is dragging the index, internals are still defensive-leaning, and yet breadth is quietly improving under the surface. That’s why the cross-asset message feels conflicted, but it isn’t random. It’s the market trying to move from one regime to the next.
The new website is live for annual subscribers, and will be opened to the rest later this week along with a 10% increase in pricing.
The SOFR message: 2026 is now priced as a cuts year
The forward table puts hard numbers on it. With overnight cash implied around 3.64%, the market is walking the path down toward roughly 3.00% by Jan ’27. That’s about 64bp of easing, or 2.4 cuts priced through 2026.
