Global Macro Method

Global Macro Method

Tactical Note

Jun 18, 2025
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Fading Fantasy Cuts and Potential Energy Shock.

Markets head into the FOMC priced for a soft landing and two rate cuts by year-end — but Powell’s messaging has been anything but urgent. Meanwhile, GBPJPY trades near cycle highs just as oil risks reignite on Middle East tensions and UK inflation refuses to back down.

In today’s tactical note:

  • Why the SFRZ5 drift may unwind post-FOMC

  • Why GBPJPY looks mispriced vs energy shock potential

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