Tactical Volatility and the Illusion of Stability

Markets are back in flux and not in the way a surface glance would suggest. The S&P 500 closed lower, tech got smoked, but defensives rallied hard. Credit spreads widened meaningfully. Meanwhile, rate markets quietly reloaded a full 3.5 Fed cuts for 2025. This isn’t a panic, but it’s a loud repricing of risk and growth assumptions.

Let’s break down what happened today and where we might be headed with a few trade ideas we are currently running.

+ Bonus educational section on bond auction results with a cheat table for quick interpretation.