Week ending 25 September | Looking ahead to 28 September–2 October 2026
Alright, the thing I keep coming back to is that an economy can be doing reasonably well while becoming a more difficult place to invest.
This week was a decent example. The S&P 500 gained around 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 2%, while the US ten-year Treasury yield traded around 5.2%. Shares were finding reasons to go up, but the cost of money wasn’t exactly getting out of the way.
I don’t think we need to decide that one market is right and the other is wrong. They can be responding to different parts of the same story.
Stronger activity can support company earnings. But when that activity runs into rising costs and stretched capacity, it can also keep interest rates higher. The question becomes whether the improvement in earnings is enough to compensate for more expensive money.
That’s where I’m approaching the coming week not with “the economy is strong, therefore buy”, or “yields are high, therefore sell”.
I want to know what is driving the growth, what it costs to sustain it, and how much of that the market has already priced.
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