The Week That Was, The Week That Is
Macro's What Was and Is Important
Markets started last week thinking central banks were still firmly in charge. By the end of it, the labour market had grabbed that microphone.
The big shift came from the US, where June payrolls rose just 57,000, unemployment held at 4.2%, participation slipped, and previous months were revised lower. That was enough to cool some of the higher for longer, maybe even higher again narrative, even though other parts of the US economy still looked pretty resilient. ISM manufacturing remained in expansion, job openings were steady, real spending was positive, equities rallied, the dollar softened, and gold caught a bid.
Below I explain why this week is less about blockbuster data and more about reading the central-bank tea leaves, from the FOMC minutes to the ECB accounts, the Bank of England’s stability update, and Japan’s busy data run.
The website continues to improve, with major updates rolling out weekly, this week the portfolio page was completed. Coming soon will be updates to Curves and Bonds.
