Triple Threat: AU, EU & UK Analysis/Trades

A STIR, Bond and Equity Write-up Through a Macro Lens

The mistake here is to treat this as one simple geopolitical shock. Higher oil, wider uncertainty and weaker risk appetite matter, but the more important question is how each central bank is forced to absorb the shock. Australia, the UK and Europe are all being pulled into the same broad problem, inflation pressure arriving before growth has clearly broken, but the market expression is different in each case.

That distinction matters for the front end, the bond curve and equity futures.

Below the paywall, I map where the repricing is already mature, where the cleaner futures expressions sit, and what would need to happen for the trade to shift from inflation persistence toward genuine growth damage.