US equities remain in a bull trend, but the quality of the rally is more fragile than the index suggests. Nvidia’s strong outlook and the broader software response have reaffirmed the AI earnings story, while oil’s decline over the week has removed one immediate pressure on margins and inflation.
The macro mix is less clean. Second-quarter growth slowed to 1.5%, July real consumer spending was effectively flat, and PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. July payrolls fell by 23,000, but weekly claims remain low, suggesting the labour market is cooling rather than breaking. This is not a recessionary backdrop, but it gives equities less room to rely on easier monetary policy.
From: Efficient market Hype a must follow on X
