What If the Fed Has to Hike Again?
Multi-layer thesis
Calm markets, sticky inflation, rising energy risk, and the “quiet” rotation underneath equities.
The market still looks calm on the surface. That is the uncomfortable part.
When markets panic, the way to play is easier. Central banks soften their language, credit spreads widen, volatility spikes, and everyone starts looking for the policy put.
This is not that setup.
Instead, the economy still looks too resilient, inflation is still too far above target, oil risk is being repriced, credit is calm but starting to bifurcate, and the dollar is pressing back toward an important level (circa 100.50, via DXY).
The question is no longer just, “When does the Fed finally cut (albeit some time away)?”
The better question now is, what if the Fed has to hike again and more than once?
All paid subscribers get access to www.globalmacromethod.com where curve and models are available.
