When Energy(s) Rewrites the Cut Cycle(s)

US, EU and UK

If you’re still trying to get your macro view from the headlines right now, I’ve got bad news and good news. Bad news is the headlines are doing what they always do in geopolitics, getting louder while getting less useful. Good news is the market is still speaking clearly, you just have to stop staring at the index and start staring at the curves.

Since last Friday, the message has been hiding in plain sight. The rate paths across the US, Europe, and the UK have all shifted in the same direction at the same time. That is not coincidence, and it is not “just a bit of volatility.” It is the market quietly repricing the one thing it hates to reprice, inflation risk that might actually last longer than a weekend.

In this note I break down exactly where that repricing is showing up, why the front end is doing the heavy lifting, and what I’m watching next to decide whether this fades fast or turns into a real macro duration problem. I also tie it back to the equity internals that are starting to blink yellow, because yes, you can absolutely get a world where stocks feel heavy and bonds refuse to rally, and that is usually where people lose money while feeling very intellectually correct.

The good stuff is below the paywall. The curves, the plumbing, the internals, and the specific tells that will confirm whether this is inflation anxiety, growth damage, or the messy in between where everyone argues on Twitter and nobody sleeps. If you’ve made it this far, you already know you want it.

My website is up with curves, x-march curves, momentum and reversion model signals