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empty_cup's avatar

A proper banger sir

If I take the assumption that Powell is political and fashionable late. And I take the assumption the fed is bad at their job (data dorks) then they will not cut this week due to the immediate affects of inflation shock we are experiencing due to oil?

What odds do you give a cut this week ?

Global Macro Method's avatar

Exactly right, I dont think there is any doubt they will not cut this FOMC. They will sight oil/energy as concerning, and suggest labor is remaining vulnerable but not yet distressed.

I would say <5% of a cut this week.

empty_cup's avatar

Epic. These poor BTDers of risk assets about to learn the hard way.

I am going to lean into my oil short Monday

OVX is almost out of gas

Holding short gold and long tlt

Druck is gonna get his face ripped off by the 1st week of April if I had to guess

John McClelland's avatar

Thank you very much. Very informative, very useful, keep it coming, please!

Global Macro Method's avatar

Thanks for that! Sure can